The War Could End Before Oil’s Supply Problem Does
October 5, 2026
Getting the oil flowing strong again is one thing. Replacing all the barrels used to get through this crisis is another.
Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser warned Monday that rebuilding depleted oil inventories could take up to two years. For investors, that raises a question: could demand for replacement barrels keep supporting energy companies after the fighting stops?
“Even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years,” Nasser told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, according to Reuters. He estimated that rebuilding stocks would add roughly two million barrels a day of demand over 18 months. That’s an estimate, though—not a stack of signed purchase orders.
President Donald Trump sounded more optimistic on October 2: “we’re gonna have a lot of oil very shortly, as soon as Iran ends, which won’t be long.” His remarks to reporters highlight the two timelines investors face: restoring exports and replacing depleted inventories.
There’s a less bullish outlook, too. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September forecast expects inventories to start building in the second half of 2027 and Brent to average $74 across that year. It assumes shipping improves and production returns. This doesn’t directly contradict Nasser’s full-rebuilding timeline, but it suggests inventories can recover while prices fall. The forecast also predates Monday’s warning and recent developments.
We’ve seen that tension before. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, IEA members released 182.7 million barrels from emergency stocks. By July, commercial inventories remained roughly 300 million barrels below their five-year average. Yet crude futures had dropped more than $20 during June as economic worries intensified, the IEA reported. Low stocks didn’t prevent a selloff.
Where investors could find opportunity
The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which includes ExxonMobil and Chevron, offers broad energy exposure. Buying gradually could suit investors expecting replenishment demand to support earnings. Still, a compelling oil story doesn’t automatically make the shares cheap.
Valero (VLO) offers exposure to refining. Its second-quarter refining operating income reached $4.5 billion. The catch is the gap between crude costs and finished-fuel prices: improving diesel supplies could narrow margins even while reserve buying supports crude demand.
What to watch over the next six months
Through April 2027, watch government replenishment contracts, sustained tanker traffic through Hormuz, commercial inventories and diesel refining margins.
If the consumption and reserve purchases absorb returning supply, energy earnings could remain strong. If production end up recovering faster than demand, prices could slide toward the EIA’s softer outlook. A weaker economy adds another downside risk.
A peace-driven selloff might create an entry point. Before buying, look for actual purchases and resilient company cash flow—not just promises that reserves eventually need replacing.
