Morning Oil Outlook. Tankers Keep Getting Hit, and Oil Keeps Falling

Iran and the Houthis are still firing at the Gulf's oil system. Crude fell anyway, with Brent, the global benchmark, down 2.7% to about $97.66 for its third straight losing session.

Traders are betting the barrels keep moving no matter what gets hit. WTI, the U.S. benchmark, is trading at its lowest level since early September.

• Brent: about $97.66, down 2.7%
• WTI: about $87.14, down 2.6%

The Attacks Haven't Stopped

Unidentified projectiles struck at least three tankers over the weekend. One of them, a brand-new large tanker called the Lipsi, took engine room damage on Sunday. Maritime Executive counted five more tankers hit in the four days before that.

Ships keep running the route anyway. A U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal that Iran's ship-targeting capability "appears to be getting better."

Yemen Is Heating Up Too

Saudi-backed forces in Yemen say they are moving to retake the capital, Sanaa, and the Red Sea port of Mocha. The Houthis deny losing ground and claim strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Aramco's Rabigh refinery, following the Aramco attack claims we covered yesterday. Saudi officials confirmed attacks on two airports, with three minor injuries reported.

Why Prices Are Shrugging It Off

The market is watching flow data more than headlines. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister said flows through the East-West Pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels, and Reuters reported shipments on that route haven't been interrupted. That pipeline lets Saudi crude skip Hormuz and load on the Red Sea coast instead.

The wider Gulf picture points the same way, though fuel is still lagging well behind crude. Our earlier breakdown has the full export numbers.

Why It Matters

For investors, this is the war premium (the extra price traders pay for supply risk) shrinking in real time, with Brent below $100 despite the attacks. It only stays this low if the flows hold, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian isn't signaling an exit, calling negotiations "meaningless."

Sources:

• Trading Economics, Crude Oil and Brent (Oct 6, 2026): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
• Maritime Executive, Lipsi tanker strike (Oct 4, 2026): https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-keeps-up-pace-of-strikes-with-attack-on-brand-new-lr2-tanker
• Manila Times (UKMTO), tankers attacked (Oct 4, 2026): https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/10/04/world/americas-emea/oil-tankers-attacked-in-strait-of-hormuz-says-uk-agency/2438390
• CBS News live updates (Oct 6, 2026): https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-oil-prices-yemen-red-sea-houthis-bab-el-mandeb/