Morning Oil Outlook. Houthis Aim at Aramco as OPEC+ Stands Pat
Oil starts the week a little higher after a tense weekend in the Gulf. Brent, the global benchmark, traded around $102.60 in Tokyo Monday morning, up from Friday's $102.25 close. WTI, the main U.S. benchmark, sat flat near $91.09.
- Brent: $102.60, up from $102.25 Friday
- WTI: $91.09, down from $91.11 Friday
- Murban (Abu Dhabi crude): $110.80, up 1.3%
Houthis claim a hit on Saudi oil
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed this weekend that they launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area. Saudi Arabia pushed back hard. Coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki called the claims "misleading" and said the group was trying to divert attention from its losses.
The claim lands as Yemen's Saudi-backed government steps up its offensive against the Houthis. That fight matters for oil because the Houthis hold the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea route tankers have leaned on while Hormuz stays shut. Markets didn't panic, but the risk of a strike on Saudi supply is now a live one.
OPEC+ holds steady again
The seven core OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to keep November output targets at September levels. It's the second straight month with no increase. Most Gulf members are still pumping below their quotas anyway, because the Iran war has cut their exports.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo summed it up simply. "The oil market remains tight," he said. The group meets again November 1.
Why it matters
The gap between Brent and WTI is still over $11. That's the cost of moving oil by sea right now, with high tanker rates and insurance baked into global prices. U.S. crude stays cheaper because it doesn't have to run those routes.
For energy stocks, the weekend didn't change the basic picture. Supply is tight, OPEC+ can't add much, and every new attack in the Gulf keeps a floor under prices. The thing to watch this week is whether the Saudi push in Yemen actually breaks the Houthi grip on the Red Sea route or drags out.
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