Morning Oil Outlook: Russian Diesel Deal Cools Oil, but Brent Holds Above $100
Oil prices dropped more than 1% early Monday after President Trump announced a Russian diesel deal and an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Brent, the global benchmark, still sits above $100 a barrel, with WTI (the US benchmark) near $90. The market is not ready to price out the risk in the Middle East. - Brent: $103.18 early Monday, down $1.54 (1.47%) - WTI: $90.31 early Monday, down $1.54 (1.68%) - By 08:21 GMT: Brent back at $104.50, WTI at $91.45 The Russian diesel deal Trump said Russia will send more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and international markets right away. Another 500,000 tonnes would follow in November, then an additional one million tonnes after that. Diesel futures fell on the news, since refinery damage and export disruptions have kept diesel prices high. On Sunday, Trump also said Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was waiting for details, and Moscow had not confirmed the deal when markets opened. Zelensky later accused Russia of breaking the truce after a strike on a thermal power plant in Kharkiv. Why the floor holds The Middle East is doing the heavy lifting on prices. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis claimed a weekend strike on Riyadh's international airport, and Trump said Washington is considering joining Saudi strikes against the group. A wider fight raises the risk to Gulf oil production and shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz remains a problem too. Before the war, it carried about a fifth of the world's oil supply. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker hit by a drone near Oman's Sohar anchorage and another damaged by an unidentified projectile while crossing the strait. Friday set the tone Prices also slipped Friday after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections. He also talked of "productive" talks to end the war. PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga pointed to that pledge, plus China's plan to resume refined fuel exports after its Golden Week holiday, as the reasons for the dip. What to watch Traders want to see whether the energy ceasefire holds and how fast Russian diesel actually ships. This week also brings monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, September CPI inflation data and weekly API inventory numbers. Analysts warn a fresh flare-up in the Gulf could reverse Monday's drop quickly. Sources: https://thediplomaticinsight.com/oil-prices-fall-russian-diesel-supply-ease-market-concerns/ https://hdfcsky.com/news/brent-crude-oil-price-today-october-12-2026-brent-falls-1-5percent-to-103-wti-drops-1-8percent-to-90-2-middle-east-risks-persist https://tribune.com.pk/story/2633987/oil-prices-fall-as-supply-fears-ease https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/2/saudi-arabia-condemns-deadly-iranian-attack-on-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/oil-price-prediction-forecast/daily-and-weekly/
