Trump "Very Seriously" Weighing Diesel Export Ban as Pump Prices Hit Record Highs
President Trump is considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports in hopes of lowering fuel prices, but some energy analysts warn the move could backfire and make fuel more expensive instead.
Trump said Sunday that his administration is looking at the idea "very seriously" as diesel prices remain near record highs and political pressure builds ahead of November's midterm elections. The national average reached about $6.50 a gallon Friday, up from $5.61 just a month earlier, according to AAA.
Supplies are tight too. U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, stood at 107.9 million barrels as of September 11, the lowest level for that point in the year since federal weekly records began in 1982.
Much of the pressure is coming from overseas. Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian refineries, while the war with Iran and disruptions in the Middle East have tightened fuel supplies around the world. U.S. refiners have increasingly helped fill that gap.
The issue has also become difficult to ignore politically. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found that 47 percent of registered voters considered the cost of living the single most important factor in deciding how they would vote in the midterms. Republican senators Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Dan Sullivan of Alaska are among those urging Trump to temporarily restrict diesel exports and keep more fuel in the United States.
The appeal of the idea is easy to understand. If less diesel leaves the country, more of it should be available at home.
Analysts say the problem is what happens next.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, argued that refiners cannot simply sell diesel cheaply in the United States while buying crude oil at global prices.
"Force a lower price and they'll make less diesel," De Haan wrote on X. "Less supply means higher prices, not lower."
That gets to the heart of the industry's concern. If refiners lose access to profitable overseas markets, they may eventually cut production rather than continue running at current levels and piling up fuel they cannot sell abroad.
Wood Mackenzie has warned that an export ban could quickly fill U.S. storage tanks and force refiners to reduce crude runs. An analysis from S&P Global estimates that a full ban could eventually cut refinery production by as much as 750,000 barrels a day as storage fills, potentially leaving the United States importing more petroleum products later this year.
The effects would not stay inside the United States.
Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera that restricting U.S. exports could push product prices higher in Europe and Asia as countries that normally buy American fuel scramble to replace those supplies elsewhere.
That could create an awkward result. A policy intended to insulate American consumers from the global diesel shortage could disrupt the same international market that U.S. refiners and consumers depend on.
The oil industry has pushed back for much the same reason. Refiners and trade groups argue that they cannot store unlimited amounts of diesel. Once tanks fill, they would have little choice but to cut refinery output, which would also reduce production of gasoline and other fuels.
For now, no final decision has been announced.
Trump acknowledged Sunday that restricting diesel exports could put some upward pressure on gasoline prices, but said the administration is still considering the idea and "may do it."
With diesel supplies already historically tight and winter heating oil demand approaching, the debate is unlikely to fade soon. Keeping more diesel at home could provide some short-term relief. The harder question is whether that relief would last once refiners begin adjusting production.
Sources:
Axios
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/22/trump-diesel-exports-ban
Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/09/22/trump-administration-examining-whether-do-diesel-export-ban/
CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/28/diesel-oil-trump-export-ban-fuel-prices.html
